Nigeria’s political map is shifting fast. In this episode, Rimamnde Shawulu speaks with Dr. Joel (political scientist, Portugal-based) on the PDP’s mass defections, the ADC coalition’s rise, and the ruling APC’s 2027 calculus—asking a tough question: Is Nigeria practicing real democracy, or only a “contextual” version built on elite bargains, ethnicity and incumbency?
We unpack why PDP powerbrokers publicly back Tinubu while vowing to “rebuild” the PDP; how incumbency + INEC appointments shape strategies; and why leaders weaponise ethnic/religious identity over competence.
We also examine Soludo vs. Peter Obi dynamics in Anambra, the fear of federal might, and parallels from Sudan and the Balkans on where exclusionary politics can lead.
What you will learn • The real drivers behind PDP→APC/ADC defections and elite coalition-building
• How INEC leadership cycles and incumbency influence 2027 strategies
• Why voters’ ethno-religious loyalty often overrides policy and performance
• The risks of divide-and-rule politics for stability, rule of law and the economy
• Historical lessons on exclusion, polarization and democratic backsliding
Guest book plug Dr. Joel’s new book: Essays on Political Science & International Relations — covering Nigerian foreign policy, the military in politics, soft power, and China’s Belt & Road in Nigeria. Available on Amazon (link coming soon).
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#Nigeria #NigerianPolitics #PDP #APC #ADC #Tinubu #PeterObi #INEC #2027Elections #Governance #RuleOfLaw #EthnicityInPolitics #Democracy #Anambra #PoliticalRealignment #MiddleBelt #ElectionIntegrity
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