Reflecting on the 2019 election results and the Southern Kaduna factor

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Emmanuel Junior Zakka, writes that the southern part of Kaduna state is not a push in the politics of Kaduna state.
In 2019, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the governorship election in Kaduna state with 1,045,427, representing 55.32 per cent of the total votes cast.
The PDP scored 814,168, representing 43.08 per cent of the total votes.
Unsurprisingly, 510,116 of the PDP votes came from Southern Kaduna, the stronghold of the PDP. The remaining 304,052 votes, came from the Northern part of the state predominantly the base of the APC.
The APC truncated the usual bloc votes of the PDP in Southern Kaduna by polling 263,344 in the area.
The APC won the governorship election with a margin of 231,259 votes. Now, let us examine how the Local Government Areas voted during the election to determine whether it is true or not, that Southern Kaduna matters in the politics of Kaduna state.
There are 11 LGAs in Southern Kaduna, including the eight that constitute the Kaduna South Senatorial District.
They include: Chikun, Kajuru, Lere, Jaba, Jema’a, Kachia, Kagarko, Kaura, Sanga, Zangon Kataf and Kauru.
The PDP won in 9 of the 11 LGAs and marginally lost in Kauru and Lere LGAs.
It should be noted that Chikun, Kajuru and Lere LGAs, though not part of the Kaduna South Senatorial District, are mainly populated or have a substantial population of ethnic minority Christians and are part of the Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU).
There are 12 LGAs in the Muslim dominated Northern part of state. They include, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Igabi, Giwa, Birnin Gwari, Zaria, Sabon Gari, Soba, Makarfi, Kudan and Kubau.
However, there are reasonable population of Christians, especially in Kaduna South.
Notwithstanding, APC dealt the PDP a serious blow to cancel the gains recorded by the party in its Southern Kaduna stronghold.
While the APC polled 772,083 votes (508,739 votes more than it got from Southern Kaduna), the PDP polled 304,042 votes (exactly 206,074 votes less than it got from its Southern Kaduna stronghold).
The difference in votes between the APC and PDP in these LGAs was 470,041. So, the APC did much better in its stronghold than the PDP did in its own stronghold, although some of these votes were allegedly inflated through manipulation.
Note that the vote difference between the APC and PDP was 231,259. So if Southern Kaduna had denied the APC 150,000 more votes than it got in the area, the PDP would have won the governorship election with 964,168 votes against the APCs 895,427 votes.
Dear brothers and sisters in Kaduna, when we say don’t be distracted, let us focus on supporting the PDP to defeat the disaster of the APC in 2023, that is what we mean.
If we want to, we can defeat the APC. That is why the APC is encouraging us to support someone from Southern Kaduna in the Labour Party (LP) who can split these votes and make their job easier.
If we fall for that, we will cry harder after 2023. I will be waiting to say I WARNED YOU (God forbid).
The APC will do anything, including sponsoring some people among us, to vie for Governorship position, NOT BECAUSE THEY WANT US TO WIN OR EVEN THINK ANY OF US CAN WIN, but because it will help them.
Those who have ears, let them listen. Recall that in the buildup to the 2019 election in the state, it was abundantly clear, owing to the abysmal failure of the APC, that the election was leaning in the direction of the PDP until the power of the average northern Muslim was used by the producer and author of the Muslim-Muslim ticket that has now gone national, Governor El-rufa’i – i.e. RELIGION.
Fair minded observers know that the moment APC used the Muslim-Muslim ticket, they swayed off the average northern Muslim who is more concerned about his religion than good leadership and good governance.
The current Muslim- Muslim ticket in the state is a testament to that. A typical northern Muslim loves his religion more than even his life. And politicians know that and they use it well. That was why the results went the way they went in 2019 and nothing more.
I am also aware that many of our Muslim brothers have become wiser now with on-the-ground sensitisation that have been silently but consistently going on among them.
The results of the last Local Government election and bye-election in the northern part of Kaduna stand as proof.
A better Southern Kaduna is possible, we need only remain focused.

Zakka writes from Kaduna

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